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--- basics:affordability:investing_in_energy_efficiency:cost-effectiveness_analysis [2014/09/18 18:19] – external edit 127.0.0.1
+++ basics:affordability:investing_in_energy_efficiency:cost-effectiveness_analysis [2019/05/08 12:22] (current) – [Conclusions for the energy price level in the future (see Fig. 1)] cblagojevic
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   * Production capacities are declining in Europe and North America - //this trend is set to increase in the future.//
   * Yukos (Russia), sabotage and attacks in Iraq - //is this just a "current problem"? –can anyone guarantee safety in the future?
 //
   * Increasing demand in China - //this is just the beginning; and it is not only China's demand that is increasing. In the long and medium term, this will be the main driving force.//
   * 4 hurricanes within 6 weeks (in 2004)-// at the moment this is only a current problem; in 2005 there were more than 25 hurricanes; in 2006, before reaching the American mainland, most of the storms drifted off towards the north. But: increasing problems are expected in future due to climate change, with a demonstrably increased risk of extreme weather.//
   * OPEC’s capacity limit - //should be overcome in the medium term; but in the long term, there will be an overall capacity limit, see "peak oil".//\\
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 ==== Conclusions for the energy price level in the future (see Fig. 1) ====
-Thus we venture that there will be a continuation of the average energy price trend here; note that this is not a forecast but rather a substantiated extrapolation based on the analysis given previously. There won't be an exponential growth in the energy price as substitution potentials are available; but in the relevant time periods in which a new construction or a modernised building will require heating energy, the average prices for energy are hardly likely to be less than today's current prices. Iinterestingly, there is a consensus amongst economists again; nevertheless, the reasons for this are not really new. It was already expected that prices would increase, but it was not easy to predict when they would increase. It is even possible that the present above-trend prices will fall once more – the curve takes this into account.
+Thus we venture that there will be a continuation of the average energy price trend here; note that this is not a forecast but rather a substantiated extrapolation based on the analysis given previously. There won't be an exponential growth in the energy price as substitution potentials are available; but in the relevant time periods in which a new construction or a modernised building will require heating energy, the average prices for energy are hardly likely to be less than today's current prices. Interestingly, there is a consensus amongst economists again; nevertheless, the reasons for this are not really new. It was already expected that prices would increase, but it was not easy to predict when they would increase. It is even possible that the present above-trend prices will fall once more – the curve takes this into account.
 What kind of energy prices should be expected? Including the annual utilisation factor (90%), the cost for heating amounts to 6.7 cents/kWh, based on an average oil price of around 60 cents/litre. In addition there are the costs for auxiliary energy (about 0.3 cents/kWh) and the variable share of the system costs (more than 1.6 cents/kWh). In total, average future heating costs of about **9 cents/kWh** should be expected. The costs for CO<sub>2</sub>–retention have not yet been taken into account.)